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Organización Meteorológica MundiaL

________________


COMITÉ DE HURACANES DE LA AR IV
TRIGÉSIMO QUINTA REUNIÓN
WILEMSTAD, CURACAO
8 A 12 ABRIL DE 2013




AR IV/HC-35/Doc. 9(1)

(5.III.2013)

________

PUNTO: 9

Idioma original: INGLÉS


OTROS ASUNTOS

ENSEÑANZA Y FORMACIÓN PROFESIONAL

(Presentado por la Secretaría)

Resumen y finalidad del documento

En este documento se presenta una propuesta para constituir un grupo de trabajo que evalúe las competencias de los predictores de ciclones tropicales en la Región.




MEDIDA QUE SE PROPONE

Se invita al Comité de Huracanes a que:



  1. constituya un grupo de trabajo que proponga para la siguiente reunión del Comité de Huracanes las competencias de los predictores de huracanes;

  2. inicie el análisis de las necesidades de aprendizaje del personal encargado de la predicción de huracanes en la Región.

Apéndices:


  1. Proyecto de texto para incluir en el informe final de la reunión

B. Información general
PROYECTO DE TEXTO PARA INCLUIR EN EL INFORME FINAL DE LA REUNIÓN
9. OTROS ASUNTOS (punto 9 del orden del día)
ENSEÑANZA Y FORMACIÓN PROFESIONAL

9.1 El Comité de Huracanes recordó las decisiones del Decimosexto Congreso Meteorológico Mundial en virtud de las cuales se establecían esferas de gran prioridad, tales como la reducción de riesgos de desastre y la aprobación de las estrategias de prestación de servicios y de desarrollo de capacidad, entre otras, para ayudar a los Miembros en la estructuración y la prestación de servicios, y la petición del Congreso para que las Comisiones Técnicas de la OMM desarrollen competencias en sus ámbitos de especialidad que aporten un conjunto mínimo de normas.



9.2 El Comité de Huracanes recordó asimismo que los Comités de Ciclones Tropicales de las AR I, II y V han constituido grupos de trabajo para proponer las competencias de los predictores de ciclones tropicales en sus Regiones. Habida cuenta de que la seguridad y el bienestar de numerosos Miembros del Caribe y de América Central se han visto muy influidos por fenómenos meteorológicos y oceanográficos provocados por los huracanes, el Comité de Huracanes decidió constituir un grupo de trabajo a fin de proponer un conjunto de competencias de los predictores de huracanes para la siguiente reunión del Comité. El Comité de Huracanes pidió que el grupo de trabajo distribuyera el proyecto de competencias dos meses antes de la siguiente reunión con objeto de que los Miembros tuvieran tiempo suficiente para examinar su adopción en la reunión. Habida cuenta de la labor ya realizada en esa esfera por los Miembros de la OMM, entre ellos, la Oficina de Meteorología de Australia, el Comité de Huracanas propuso que, en un primer tiempo, el grupo de trabajo revisara esas competencias y las aportaciones de los demás Comités de Ciclones Tropicales para elaborar el proyecto de competencias del personal encargado de la predicción de huracanes en esa Región.
9.3 El Comité de Huracanes señaló que un enfoque de ese tipo ayudaría a los Miembros a:


  • proporcionar un método de predicción de huracanes más uniforme;




  • contribuir a que se efectuaran predicciones más coherentes por parte de cada Miembro y entre los Miembros;




  • prestar asistencia en la atribución de recursos regionales limitados en materia de enseñanza y formación profesional a las esferas prioritarias regionales clave;




  • posibilitar la coordinación de las actividades regionales de enseñanza y formación de los institutos de formación profesional, tales como los dos Centros Regionales de Formación, el Centro de Predicción Tropical de los Estados Unidos, la Universidad de Miami y el Laboratorio Virtual para la Meteorología por Satélite del Grupo de Coordinación de los Satélites Meteorológicos (GCSM) de la OMM, y lograr una estructura común que permita a la Región alcanzar sus metas y objetivos establecidos;




  • prestar asistencia a otros Miembros para abogar a favor del apoyo financiero gubernamental que permita al servicio cumplir, por lo menos, las “normas” regionales mínimas;




  • contribuir a minimizar los riesgos asociados a los errores de predicción de huracanes;

  • prestar asistencia a otros Miembros para demostrar que sus servicios han satisfecho los requisitos en materia de “precauciones necesarias” mediante personal competente que se ajusta, por lo menos, a las normas regionales mínimas acordadas;




  • contribuir a actividades de apoyo en el plano regional; y




  • desarrollar competencias en las esferas de predicción general, predicción marina y servicios de asistencia meteorológica a la aeronáutica.

El Comité de Huracanas reconoció que, si bien el desarrollo y la implantación de un enfoque común sobre competencias presenta numerosas ventajas, todos los Miembros deberán abordar, entre otras cuestiones, la manera de lograr el apoyo del personal a dicho enfoque, disponer de las partidas presupuestarias y listas de personal necesarias para organizar actividades de enseñanza y evaluación por el tiempo necesario, resolver los casos de personal calificado como “no competente todavía”, y en su caso, procurarse más recursos gubernamentales que permitan cumplir las normas mínimas.

9.4 Además de elaborar el proyecto de competencias, el Comité de Huracanes pidió a sus Miembros que proporcionaran al grupo de trabajo la información que figura en el anexo al presente párrafo para ayudar a dicho grupo a definir el alcance y la amplitud de los requisitos regionales en materia de enseñanza y de formación profesional. Esa información también podría resultar útil a grupos como el Servicio Meteorológico Nacional de los Estados Unidos para aprovechar al máximo sus recursos limitados en materia de enseñanza y formación profesional, a fin de lograr los mejores resultados posibles a escala regional. El Comité de Huracanes reconoció la necesidad de seguir haciendo hincapié en esas cuestiones antes de distribuir información a los Miembros.

______________


Anexo al párrafo 9.4
Con objeto de ayudar al grupo de trabajo encargado de elaborar el proyecto de competencias de primer y segundo nivel en materia de predicción de huracanes, se pide a los Miembros que faciliten al presidente de dicho grupo de trabajo la información que figura a continuación. Dicha información servirá para ayudar a determinar el alcance y la amplitud de la formación profesional que podría requerirse para implementar esas competencias a escala regional, habida cuenta de que cada Miembro deberá adaptar las competencias de segundo nivel a sus propias necesidades con arreglo a las circunstancias nacionales y a los requisitos de personal y servicios.


Información solicitada

Respuesta




2013

2016

Número total de personas empleadas en operaciones sobre huracanes






Número de personas empleadas (1) en actividades de:




  • apoyo general a operaciones sobre huracanes

  • apoyo a operaciones sobre huracanes en labores de predicción

  • de gestión del apoyo a operaciones sobre huracanes en labores de predicción

  • predicción de los posibles efectos de las mareas ciclónicas

  • evaluación del potencial de la ciclogénesis tropical

  • reanálisis de los fenómenos TC

(1) si un empleado realiza más de una actividad deberá contabilizarse únicamente para la actividad más importante, con objeto de que la suma de esas cantidades coincida con la de la primera fila








¿Posee un plan de desarrollo profesional continuo para que el servicio le garantice en todo momento que dispondrá de personas capaces de desempeñar las funciones clave?







¿Quién lleva a cabo las actividades de enseñanza y formación profesional para sus empleados en cuestiones relativas a los huracanes?








¿Cómo financia las actividades de enseñanza y formación profesional para sus empleados?







Determine:


1. Tres esferas prioritarias en materia de enseñanza y formación profesional

2. El número de personas que requieren formación profesional



  1. La manera en que se procurará recursos de formación profesional

  2. Posibles medidas de contingencia en caso de no obtener los recursos necesarios









¿Qué tipo de actividades de formación profesional previas a la temporada de huracanes lleva a cabo actualmente?










INFORMACIÓN GENERAL
Introducción
La zona del Caribe y América Central de la AR IV dispone de un gran número de medios y recursos en materia de enseñanza y formación profesional, en conjunto tal vez los más importantes de todas las Regiones de la OMM. Lamentablemente no todos los Miembros son capaces de aprovechar al máximo esos recursos. Otros Miembros tienen tantos recursos al alcance que no saben cómo utilizarlos ni administrarlos.
El desarrollo profesional continuo se basa, por lo menos, en dos elementos. Por un lado, los intereses, las aficiones y los planes de futuro a nivel personal; por otro, en el ámbito empresarial, la forma en que se garantiza que el Servicio siga disponiendo de personal capaz de prestar los servicios necesarios a la comunidad de usuarios con arreglo al nivel de calidad requerido, o superior. Con respecto al segundo elemento, ha de tenerse en cuenta asimismo la rotación y movilidad del personal, así como la planificación de sucesión en los cargos.
En el anexo (disponible solamente en inglés) figura el enfoque que ha adoptado la Oficina de Meteorología de Australia a fin de garantizar la calidad del servicio de ciclones tropicales a través de competencias en materia de predicción. Si bien dicho enfoque corresponde a un solo Miembro, éste dispone en realidad de tres Centros de avisos de ciclones tropicales que abarcan diversas zonas del país, por lo que pueden proporcionarse orientaciones que atienden a diferencias regionales. Aunque el equipo, y tal vez parte de la terminología y algunos valores umbral utilizados en Australia difieran de los empleados en el Caribe, el presente documento puede servir de ayuda inicial para examinar un conjunto mínimo de competencias de los predictores de huracanes para la Región del Caribe. Este documento se ha proporcionado a la AR IV, previo acuerdo con la Oficina de Meteorología, además de a las AR I, II y V.
Con respecto a la mejora de la prestación de servicios de predicción de huracanes a las comunidades del Caribe y de América Central en el ámbito de las actividades de reducción de riesgos de desastre, tal vez el Comité de Huracanes desee analizar desde un punto de vista estratégico el gran número de posibilidades que ofrecen las esferas de la enseñanza y formación profesional y los elementos clave que no se hayan considerado, con objeto de garantizar que los Miembros aprovechen al máximo los recursos disponibles. La clave para lograrlo es tener metas y objetivos claros, gobernanza y planificación adecuadas y una buena coordinación, así como realizar actividades de seguimiento y evaluación.
Las actividades y los recursos enumerados a continuación, entre otros, están al alcance de los Miembros:
Actividades:


  • Cursillo anual de la AR IV sobre huracanes (Miami)

  • Adscripciones al Centro de Huracanes de Florida

  • Adscripciones a la Oficina Tropical de los Centros Nacionales de Predicción del Medio Ambiente (NCEP)

  • Debates mensuales sobre meteorología en el Laboratorio Virtual de la OMM para la Meteorología por Satélite, en inglés en el caso de la versión para el Caribe, y en inglés y en español en el caso de la versión para América Central y América del Sur (http://www.wmo-sat.info/vlab/regional-focus-groups/)

Recursos:




  • Principalmente el sitio web MetEd del Programa de Cooperación para la Enseñanza y la Formación en Meteorología Operativa (COMET) (https://www.meted.ucar.edu/index.php)

A fin de ampliar esta lista, no exhaustiva, los Miembros podrían formular las siguientes preguntas:




  • ¿Qué función deberían desempeñar, en su caso, los Centros Regionales de Formación de Barbados y de Costa Rica al brindar asistencia a los Miembros en el ámbito de la formación sobre huracanes?

  • ¿Existen actividades en el marco del proyecto Iberoamericano que ayuden a ofrecer más posibilidades a los países hispanohablantes?

  • ¿Se puede utilizar el programa de becas a corto plazo de la OMM para hacer más hincapié en la formación profesional en la Región y difundir los resultados entre los Miembros?



Annex
Australian Bureau of Meteorology Tropical Cyclone Services Competencies 2011

Project Governance


Role

Name

Signature

Date

SRTD (BMTC)

Harald Richter



28 June 2011

SRTC (WSPB)

Alan Sharp



5 July 2011

MWS (Qld)

Gavin Holcombe



27 June 2011

MWS (NT)

Gordon Jackson



28 June 2011

MWS (WA)

Grahame Reader



23 June 2011

Document Information





Information

Document Id

Tropical Cyclone Services Competencies

Document Owner

Joe Courtney

Document Status

Final version – to be submitted to ADS.

Last Saved Date

5 July 2011

File Name/location

\shared\Head Office\Training Centre \srtd\TC\competencies\TC_competencies.doc

Document History 


Version

Issue Date

Changes

1.0

2005

Created and modified in subsequent years under ownership of SRTC Alan Sharp.

2.0

July 2010

Responsibility passed to Joe Courtney (JC). Revised format from early draft.

2.1

October 2010

Units reorganised more aligned with roles.

2.2

November 2010

Text revision. (JC)

2.3

December 2010

Addition of more elements. Presented to TC working group for initial feedback.

2.4

February 2011

Addition of more text for Required skills and knowledge. (JC)

2.5

11 March 2011

Unit 1 changed to Unit 4. Modified required skills and knowledge. (JC)

2.6

16 March 2011

Minor edits following input from Andrew Burton. (JC)

2.7

29 March 2011

Add Communication Unit; refine non-operational unit to be based on reanalysis; Unit 2 and 3 rearrangements; other edits. (JC)

2.8

4 April 2011

Rearrange Units 2 and 3. (JC)

2.9

6 April 2011

Add Unit on Storm Tide, remove communication unit (provisionally), minor edits to other units. (JC)

2.10

29 May 2011

Revision of communication elements inc. Removal of media elements and addition to storm tide unit. (JC)

2.11

5 July 2011

Revision of communication elements inc. Signatures attached. Final version sent to ADS. (JC)

Overview
There are a range of job roles providing Tropical Cyclone specific* services in the Bureau of Meteorology including:


  1. The senior TCWC forecaster able to generate full range of forecasts, formulate policy, deliver briefings and presentations and perform associated tasks;




  1. Forecasters providing technical assistance in the TCWC;




  1. Other TCWC support staff providing:

    1. media support;

    2. logistical and some technical assistance;

    3. answering enquiries from users (this includes regional staff in WSO/Field Offices);




  1. Meteorologists producing routine TC Outlooks involving cyclogenesis assessment;




  1. Meteorologists conducting non-operational tasks such as updating directives, conducting investigations, maintaining the TC database and engaging in TC education processes.

In addition, some forecasters have a specialist role in storm tide warnings without necessarily being proficient in other TCWC services.


* Note: There are also many staff providing valuable assistance as part of their regular duties such as observers and engineering staff. A key role is the Incident Manager of the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) normally the Manager of Weather Services who will organise the roster, assist in policy formulation and provide media support. The ability to organise the roster is not a specific TC competency so is excluded. However this role would require competency in ‘general support’ (Unit 1) at a minimum.

Staff in Commercial Weather Services (CWS) provide TC specific products and would require competency in Units 1 and 2 at a minimum


These competencies have been devised to be consistent with the following:


  • The actual work in the TCWC and other tropical cyclone services;

  • What is most important in particular with respect to risks to the organisation;

  • Other competency plans for fire weather, thunderstorms, tsunami and aviation;

  • National standards as set out by the National Training Information Service (NTIS).


Underpinning knowledge, skills and systems
The required primary knowledge and skills fall into four categories:


  1. Tropical cyclone science and hazards;

  2. The process and tools used to generate TC products;

  3. Analysis, forecast and policy formulation skills;

  4. Communication and presentation skills.

Communication and presentation skills do not form a separate unit of competency specifically for tropical cyclones but nevertheless are required for the roles in the TCWC. Given the high risk associated with conveying storm tide potential to users and that the role of determining the storm tide may not rest with the lead forecaster, a separate communication element has been included in Unit 4 on storm tide forecasting. Media competency is to be treated separately as a generic competency. In the future it is likely that a separate generic communication competency across all hazards will be implemented for forecasters. It is expected that the communication aspects within this TC competency document will then be superfluous and hence can be removed.


As well as those listed under particular elements, the following are required:


  • General weather forecasting and forecast preparation skills.

  • General synoptic analysis techniques (including data limitations).

  • Ability to analyse and synthesize a range of data types in order to apply relevant weighting to each data type where appropriate.

  • Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) – interpretation of model output; knowledge of model strengths and limitations; and model comparisons.

The specific skills and knowledge are listed under each unit.


Range statement
Each cyclone differs in the availability and quality of data used in the analysis, and the complexity of forecasting requirements. The cyclone’s location will determine the extent of available observations including distribution and availability of surface and upper air observations, availability of radar and communication outages.

Each cyclone or part of a cyclone’s history will result in differing abilities to analyse and forecast the cyclone, dependent on intensity of cyclone, and variability of movement and intensity changes.


A tropical cyclone that is not expected to affect the coast attracts a low amount of external interest and typically requires only one meteorologist to provide the range of services at any one time. By comparison a severe TC that is approaching the coast requires several staff to be operational at one time to deal with the significant media interest, liaison with emergency management, storm surge potential and complex decision making with respect of other impacts and the associated production of products.
There are some policy and procedural variations between the three TCWCs including:


  • Gales: TC advices for coastal areas are based on the expectation of gales (at least 34 knots) except on the east coast where the expectation is based on strong gales (at least 41 knots) unless the tropical cyclone is expected to cross the coast or islands along the east coast within 24 hours when the threshold reduces to 34 knots. .

  • Storm surge procedures vary from state to state, as does liaison requirements with the state-based emergency managers.

  • Qld TCWC issue products for Solomon Islands, the Fiji Met Service and Norfolk Island, while NT and WA TCWC issue a product for Timor-Leste and Indonesia.

  • In Qld TCWC the Cairns and Townsville Met. Offices play a significant role and need to be briefed on a regular basis.

  • Extra-tropical transition can occur off the west coast, while ‘hybrid’ lows can form off the east coast.

  • Arrangements with local emergency services vary. For example WA has a coloured community alerts system that is appended to BoM advices and NT has their own style of community action statements depending on the level/timing of threat, while Qld has more generic action messages. Arrangements for briefings to Emergency Services vary between regions and depends upon the level of threat to communities.


The Learning Process
The learning process is facilitated through a number of processes that include:
1. Being directly involved in operational events, especially if they are being mentored by experienced staff.

2. Observing experienced staff during operations.

3. Participating in a simulation exercise, typically as part of preseason training activities.

4. Receiving other training which may be face-to-face, seminars or online (e.g. COMET)

5. Informal reading including email discussion lists such as tropical storms or informal discussions with experienced staff.
Key Learning Resources
A summary of the tropical cyclone learning resources are available at:

From internal Bureau website


This will link to online training resources that are being developed.
Assessment Guidelines
Assessment will be against the specific competencies and will occur through a combination of methods that may include:


  • on-line assessments;

  • observations made during face-to-face training by an approved assessor;

  • observations by an approved assessor during actual operations or using a case study that simulates operational conditions;

  • Authenticated evidence from the workplace from the past five years;

  • 3rd party reports from supervisor.

For consistency of assessment the evidence should be gathered over time in more than one case to ensure the person can achieve competency in different situations.


The level of competency expected is that of reasonable forecaster, not “the best forecaster in the world.”

Pre-requisites

Unit 1 is a pre-requisite for unit 2 which in turn is a prerequisite for units 3 and 6. Unit 1 is also a prerequisite for Unit 4. Whilst Unit 5 does not require all the elements of Units 1 and 2, staff required to produce the Tropical Cyclone outlooks are generally also required to have completed Units 1 and 2.



Summary of Tropical Cyclone Competencies
Unit 1. Provide general support during Tropical Cyclone operations
Elements
1.1 Access and interpret BoM TC products and services.

1.2 Provide TC information in response to enquiries.

1.3 Provide logistical support to Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre operations.
Unit 2. Provide forecasting support during Tropical Cyclone operations
Elements
2.1 Use systems and tools available in the TCWC.

2.2 Assist in the analysis of TC position, intensity and structure and broadscale environment.

2.3 Assist in the forecasting of TC structure, track and intensity.

2.4 Assist in the preparation and issuing of TC products.


Unit 3. Lead forecasting services during Tropical Cyclone operations
Elements
3.1 Analyse TC position, intensity and structure and broadscale environment.

3.2 Forecast TC structure, track and intensity.

3.3 Determine potential weather impacts.

3.4 Formulate policy and issue TC products.

3.5 Liaise with internal staff and deliver briefings and presentations to internal and external stakeholders.
Unit 4. Forecast potential storm tide impacts
Elements
4.1 Assess predicted tides and observed tides.

4.2 Forecast storm surge and storm tide potential.

4.3 Communicates storm tide potential to users.
Unit 5. Assess Tropical Cyclogenesis potential
Elements
5.1 Identify and assess suspect area with a suitable environment for development.

5.2 Forecast potential for development into a TC in the region.


Unit 6. Conduct re-analyses of TC events and maintain the TC database
Elements
6.1 Compile reports and analyses of events and assist in the maintenance of the national TC database.

6.2 Assist in the provision of a tropical cyclone information service including educational initiatives, responding to requests for information and engagements with key sectors such as emergency services, industry and media.

6.3 Participate in the review and improvement of the TC warning service including the preparation and maintenance of directives, procedures and guidance material.

Unit 1. Provide general support during Tropical Cyclone operations.

Unit Descriptor

This competency unit is relevant to all Bureau of Meteorology staff working in the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) and those who are required to answer enquiries provide media interviews or make presentations or briefings associated with TC services. This may include staff in regional Observing and Weather Service Offices in cyclone-affected regions. This unit is a prerequisite to all other units except Unit 5.




Element

Performance Criteria

1. Access and interpret BoM TC products and services.

1.1 Uses the internet and other sources to access the appropriate information.

1.2 Consults with other staff to access appropriate information.

1.3 Interprets TC information effectively.

1.4 Derives key TC messages from products.

2. Provide TC information in response to enquiries.

2.1 Identifies requirements and specific needs of the user appropriately.

2.2 Responds clearly, in a timely manner and in accordance with the public sector code of conduct.

2.3 Addresses the enquiry by providing the most appropriate information or refers to relevant source.

2.4 Explains technical information in concise, clear and easy to understand language.

2. Provide logistical support to TCWC operations.

2.1 Assists in the maintenance of records, product archive and other information in the TCWC as appropriate.

2.2 Assists in some technical duties such as monitoring of weather observations, checking of web products and external websites as appropriate.


Required Skills and Knowledge

Skills in:



  • using technology including internet, presentation software and telephones;

  • accessing and interpreting TC information and products;

  • interpreting weather observations, satellite and radar imagery;

  • communication.

Knowledge of:



  • general features of TCs including their structure, intensity, motion and occurrence;

  • TC hazards especially wind, rainfall and storm surge;

  • the range of available TC products and TC information on the internet;

  • Bureau policies and guidelines including the TC directive;

  • the TC forecast process.


Regional variations

  • Staffing policies;

  • local archiving and operational websites;

  • regional climatology and impacts (e.g. storm surge inside Great Barrier Reef);

  • observation networks;

  • variations in policies relating to answering of phone calls.


Key Learning Resources

Refer online: Bureau provides links to intranet based resources here



Unit 2. Provide forecasting support during Tropical Cyclone operations.

Unit Descriptor

This competency unit is relevant to forecasters working in the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre and is a pre-requisite for Units 3 and 6.




Element

Performance Criteria

1 Use systems and tools available in the TCWC.


1.1 Follows TC process according to standard procedures, timelines and directive.

1.2 Uses TC Module and other systems and tools in accordance with standard procedures.

2. Assist in analysing the TC position, intensity and structure and broadscale environment.

2.1 Provides valued assistance to analyse the broadscale environment to assess the likely influence on the disturbance.

2.2 Provides valued assistance to determine location of centre and current movement in accordance with standard procedures.

2.3 Provides valued assistance to determine intensity in accordance with standard procedures.

2.4 Provides valued assistance to determine structure in accordance with standard procedures.

3. Assist in forecasting the TC track, intensity and structure.

3.1 Provides valued assistance to interpret NWP-predicted broadscale environment to assess the likely influence on the disturbance.

3.2 Provides valued assistance to determine forecast track in accordance with standard procedures .

3.3 Provides valued assistance to determine forecast intensity in accordance with standard procedures.

3.4 Provides valued assistance to determine forecast structure in accordance with procedures and timelines.

4. Assist in the formulation of policy and issuing of products.

4.1 Provides useful input to policy determination.

4.2 Issue forecast products on time, efficiently and using appropriate language free from errors.


Required Skills and Knowledge

Skills in:



  • following the TC forecast process;

  • using McIdas, Data viewing software and other AIFS/GFE applications.;

  • using TCModule;

  • interpreting radar imagery;

  • compiling products.

Knowledge of:



  • regional cyclone policy and forecast process;

  • observation networks;

  • strengths and weaknesses of different data types;

  • TC structure conceptual models;

  • synoptic factors that affect the intensity including shear, ocean temperatures, upper-level flow, stability, landfall, vorticity and low to mid-level moisture;

  • Dvorak technique, ADT, AMSU intensity estimation, SATCON and other intensity analysis guidance;

  • interpreting Microwave and scatterometry imagery;

  • consensus track forecasting techniques;

  • conceptual framework for steering patterns;

  • relative strengths and limitations of available models in predicting cyclone movement, structure and intensity;

  • Intensity forecasting methods;

  • conceptual models of decay;

  • product formats and content;

  • pressure-wind relationship.


Regional variations

Refer to those listed in Unit 1.


Key Learning Resources

Refer online:

TC Module User Guide

Unit 3. Lead forecasting services during Tropical Cyclone operations.
Unit Descriptor

This competency unit is relevant to ‘senior’ forecasters working in the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre at the Bureau of Meteorology. It covers the provision of operational Tropical Cyclone services at an experienced, unsupervised level. It includes:



  • TC analysis and forecasting;

  • determining the potential weather and storm tide impacts;

  • formulating policy and issuing of products; and

  • delivering briefings and presentations.




Element

Performance Criteria

1. Analyse TC position, intensity and structure and broadscale environment.

1.1 Analyses the broadscale environment to assess the likely influence on the disturbance in a range of situations.

1.2 Determines location of centre and current movement in accordance with standard procedures in a range of situations.

1.3 Determines intensity in accordance with standard procedures in a range of situations.

1.4 Determines structure in accordance with standard procedures in a range of situations.

2. Forecast TC track, intensity and structure.

2.1 Interprets NWP-predicted broadscale environment to assess the likely influence on the disturbance in a range of situations.

2.2 Determines forecast track in accordance with standard procedures in a range of situations.

2.3 Determines forecast intensity in accordance with standard procedures in a range of situations.

2.4 Determines forecast structure in accordance with procedures and timelines in a range of situations.


3. Determine potential weather impacts.

3.1 Forecast extent of cyclonic winds (e.g. gales, storm force) and onset times for key locations using available guidance in a range of situations.

3.2 Forecast rainfall using available guidance in a range of situations and liaise with Hydrology to determine potential flooding.

3.3 Forecast waves and swell using standard techniques.


4. Formulate policy and issue TC products

4.1 Formulates TC policy in accordance with procedures in a range of situations.

4.2 Determines the appropriate key messages for general and technical audiences in a range of situations.

4.3 Issues the range of TC products in accordance with procedures and timelines in a range of situations.

5. Liaise with internal staff and deliver briefings and presentations to internal and external stakeholders

5.1 Liaise effectively with internal staff in the development of tropical cyclone policy and the impact on other services.

5.2 Logically structures briefings/presentations to contain relevant, accurate and complete information.

5.3 Delivers briefings/presentations to suit the intended audience explaining technical information in concise, clear and easy to understand language.


Required Skills and Knowledge

Refer to Unit 2.


Also Skills in:

  • using Dvorak technique for cyclone centre location and intensity estimation;

  • interpreting microwave and scatterometry imagery;

  • interpreting radar imagery;

  • analysing wind shear from CIMMS, and NWP shear analyses and prognoses;

  • interpreting cloud drift wind;

  • assessing the environment for motion and intensity changes;

  • interpreting NWP guidance material;

  • estimating the intensity from a number of inputs;

  • Time Management (to produce the range of products on time);

  • assessing rainfall potential including eTRaP, consensus model guidance (OCF, PME) and probabilistic rainfall guidance;

  • determining onset and extent of weather phenomena;

  • compiling policy and key messages for different audiences;

  • delegating and managing other staff;

  • facilitating and engaging in communication exchanges including active listening and speaking, and consultation in policy situations;

  • clarifying meaning, exploring issues, problem solving or referral, conflict resolution;

  • converting technical concepts into concise and easy to understand language;

  • using equipment for presentations.

Knowledge of:



  • potential impacts in a range of synoptic situations;

  • wave and storm surge theory;

  • user needs;

  • extra-tropical transition potential including the phase-space evolution (Hart) theory;

  • contingency plans.

  • principles of effective communication, including presentation and interviews and conflict resolution techniques;

  • presentation and meeting formats and requirements;

  • organisational processes and hierarchy;

  • legislation, regulations, policies, procedures and guidelines relating to workplace communication in the public sector such as privacy, confidentiality, freedom of information.


Regional variations

  • regional geography especially as how it affects rainfall forecasting;

  • regional product differences;

  • arrangements for handling external enquiries including international Met. agencies such as Indonesia, Fiji and Solomon Is;

  • arrangements for briefing internal staff including met. offices;

  • arrangements for briefing external stakeholders.


Key Learning Resources

Unit 4. Forecast potential storm tide impacts.
Unit Descriptor

This competency unit is relevant to forecasters providing storm tide warnings in the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre at the Bureau of Meteorology.




Element

Performance Criteria

1. Assesses predicted tides and observed tides.

1.1 Accesses observed and predicted tide levels for locations of concern.

1.2 Determines the significance of the observed and predicted tide levels on the potential for inundation.

2. Forecasts storm surge and storm tide potential.

2.1 Uses storm tide software and tools in accordance with standard procedures.

2.2 Assesses storm tide potential considering various track and intensity scenarios and confidence levels (worst case, most likely, alternate track/intensity).

2.3 Issues products on time, efficiently and free from errors.

3. Communicates storm tide potential to users.

3.1 Logically structures briefings/presentations to contain relevant, accurate and complete information including uncertainty and alternate scenario information.

3.2 Delivers briefings/presentations to suit the intended audience explaining technical information in concise, clear and easy to understand language.


Required Skills and Knowledge

Refer to Unit 1.


Also Skills in:

  • using storm tide guidance software;

  • accessing observed tide levels and predicted tide levels;

  • interpreting TC track and intensity forecasts to input information into storm tide software;

  • interpreting Numerical Weather Prediction outputs;

  • storm surge forecasting;

  • producing storm tide products;

  • communication including consultation in policy situations.

  • time management (to produce the range of products on time).

Knowledge of:



  • Storm tide theory and warning techniques;

  • the level of threat posed by storm surge heights;

  • user needs;

  • principles of effective communication, including presentation and interviews and conflict resolution techniques;

  • presentation and meeting formats and requirements.


Regional variations

  • Storm tide warning techniques;

  • differences in complexity of coastal/ocean factors (e.g. GB Reef);

  • differences in liaison arrangements with stakeholders;

  • differences in Regional products.


Key Learning Resources

Unit 5. Assess Tropical Cyclogenesis potential.

Unit Descriptor

This competency unit is relevant to forecasters required to produce Tropical Cyclone Outlook products.


Element

Performance Criteria

1. Identify and assess suspect area and the broadscale environment.

1.1 Locates deep convective disturbance and/or significant low/mid-level circulation effectively.

1.2 Identifies whether NWP suggests development of a circulation in the forecast period.

1.3 Determines intensity and intensity trend of the circulation.

1.4 Interprets MJO and other tropical waves for influencing genesis potential in the suspect area appropriately.

1.5 Determines influences of SST, shear, upper-level outflow, low level inflow, land, low-mid level moisture and stability for genesis in the suspect area.

2. Forecast potential for development.

2.1 Assesses range of NWP outputs for development potential effectively.

2.2 Combines current assessment with NWP to assess development potential appropriately.

2.3 Formulates policy in consultation with internal stakeholders effectively.

2.4 Issues TC Outlook products timely and efficiently.


Required skills and knowledge

Skills in:



  • following cyclogenesis process;

  • accessing and interpreting IR/Vis/WV, microwave and scatterometry imagery;

  • accessing and interpreting surface observations, analyses and radar;

  • accessing and interpreting relevant information via the web, for example:

Darwin Weekly Tropical Climate Note, CIMMS, SST/OHC, MJO guidance, Ensemble Prediction systems;

  • interpreting synoptic situation making use of surface and upper observations and satellite imagery;

  • analysis of environmental conditions for cyclogenesis:

upper-air patterns;

SST/OHC;


Low wind shear, vertically alignment of circulation;

Convection, instability, low-mid level moisture;

Low-level flow, vorticity;


  • using software (Kenny, Mcidas, web etc) to access NWP.

  • communication and negotiation to liaise with internal stakeholders including resolving border issues; and

  • using software to issue products.

Knowledge of:



  • Dvorak technique particularly the initial classification;

  • current theories regarding the important processes in cyclogenesis;

  • MJO and tropical wave features in cyclogenesis;

  • relative strengths and limitations of available models in predicting cyclogenesis;

  • local climatology of cyclogenesis;


Regional Variations

  • Commercial Weather outlooks, primarily off the northwest coast (105-130E), extend the outlook beyond the public range. Semi-objective techniques are used to produce these outlooks.

  • Locally produced NWP guidance formats.


Key Learning Resource

Unit 6. Conduct re-analyses of TC events and maintain the TC database
This competency unit is relevant to meteorologists engaged in non-operational work particularly those in the Severe Weather sections.


Element

Performance Criteria

1. Conduct ‘best track’ reanalysis of cyclone events, archive information, compile and publish reports.

1.1 Conduct reanalysis of cyclone to determine a ‘best track’ according to appropriate standards.

1.2 Compile and publish post-event reports and summaries with appropriate and accurate content.

1.3 Highlights significant scientific aspects of the event.

1.4 Archives relevant information in appropriate format(s).

2. Review operational performance.

2.1 Assesses operational performance following the reanalysis.

2.2 Promotes findings to stakeholders as appropriate.

3. Maintenance of the national TC database.

3.1 Updates the TC database accurately and on a timely basis.

3.2 Extracts information from the TC database effectively.


Required Skills and Knowledge

Refer Unit 1 and 2.

Also Skills in:


  • TCModule including ADAM interface;

  • database management;

  • writing reports and investigations with appropriate content;

  • editing web pages;

  • retrieving archived information and storing it in secure location;

  • reviewing performance, products and forecast process; and proposing improvements.

Knowledge of:



  • regional cyclone policy;

  • TC database structure;

  • best track procedures.


Regional Variations

  • Regional archiving arrangements including analyses, NWP products, imagery, and products.

  • Regional web facility;


Key Learning Resources
Refer online:

Best Track User Guide



TC Module User Guide




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